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Thinking, fast and slow

Kahneman, Daniel

서명/저자사항Thinking, fast and slow / Daniel Kahneman.
개인저자Kahneman, Daniel, 1934-
판사항1st ed.
발행사항New York : Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.
형태사항499 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.
번역저록思考, 快与慢
생각에 관한 생각
생각에 관한 생각 2판
Kahneman, Daniel, 1934- Schnelles Denken, langsames Denken / 22. Aufl. München : Siedler, c2011. 9783886808861
ISBN9780374275631 (hc : alk. paper)
9780374533557 (pbk.)
0374533555 (pbk.)
서지주기Includes bibliographical references (p. 447-481) and index.
일반주제명Thought and thinking.
Decision making.



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Thinking, fast and slow
  • 9
  • 2022-06-07
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Daniel Kahneman is a psychologist who studies decision-making, and this book is a synopsis of his years of research, research so important and insightful that it won him a Nobel Prize in behavioral economics in 2002. The book broadly follows three arguments: first, it introduces two fictitious characters, System 1 and System 2; second, it imagines two fictitious species, Econs and Humans; and last, there are two fictitious selves, the experiencing self and the remembering self. By looking at how these different entities interact, he shows us how human decision-making can go wrong. The first part of the book, in which he describes how our minds are divided into Systems 1 and 2 is the most interesting and crucial. Basically, System 1 is intuitive and fast. It is what we use when we see a face and need to analyze the emotion in it. On the other hand, System 2 is rational and slow. It is what we use when we need to multiply 24 x 37 in our heads. We need to consciously engage it, it takes a real effort, and we will generally avoid doing so unless necessary. We mostly walk around using System 1 and only engage System 2 when we have to, because it is difficult. System 1 jumps to conclusions based on inadequate evidence. System 2 is the part that can disprove these affirmative beliefs. Especially when evaluating emotionally charged situations, System 2 often finds justifications for judgements System 1 has already made. What follows is that it is much “easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own.” [M]any people are overconfident, prone to put too much faith in their intuitions. They apparently find cognitive effort mildly unpleasant and avoid it as much as possible.” Some people are more dominated by System 2 and generally more intelligent, rational, and exhibit more self-control, but this is relative. Even expert statisticians are not intuitive statisticians. All of us make very common errors repeatedly. The second part of the book examines in detail how economists have assumed that humans act rationally, while psychologists know that we often are not. This is the heart of behavioral economics, The author discusses the various mistakes the human mind makes when trying to analyze situations intuitively rather than statistically. There are sampling problems, randomness, the anchoring effect, the availability heuristic, availability bias, predicting by representativeness rather than a base rate, following plausibility rather than probability, prospect theory, the sunk cost fallacy, the focusing illusion, and regression to the mean. If you don’t know what some of those mean, don’t worry, before I read this book, I didn’t know either. The third part of the book is about hedonics, what makes people happy. We do not remember things in the same way as we experienced them, and this has several interesting impacts. The best example of this was an experiment in which people’s hands were submerged in painfully cold water for 1 minute. For some people, the hands were submerged for an additional 30 seconds in somewhat less cold water. The people who had an extra 30 seconds of torture rated their experience as less painful after it had happened. If you were asked in advance, would you rather have 60 seconds of torture or 60 seconds of torture followed by 30 seconds of somewhat less torture, you would pick the first. However, our remembering minds seem to not take duration into account, and look at only the most recent experience. Other examples, a 2-year romance can be destroyed by a bad breakup or a 2-hour movie can be ruined by a bad ending. He writes about the very underappreciated role of luck in the success of any endeavor or person. If you read a biography or a business success story, you will never read about how lucky the person was, and yet this is one of the greatest historical forces of all. It is something that the ancients appreciated. Great weight was given to someone being a “lucky” general, and that general gave thanks to the gods for his luck. Now, it is about talent, or timing, or systems, or a team, but what about happenstance? How would the 20th Century been different if Hitler had gotten into a car accident in 1938? The book also has some good, solid advice on when we should stop and engage System 2 to look at the situation statistically. For example, if you don’t know the particulars of a case but need to provide an estimate, take the baseline view and adjust from there. For example, if you need to know the height of a particular woman in NYC, think “What is the average height of a woman in NYC?” This will give you the answer most likely in the ballpark. Adjust from there on the basis of new evidence. Never buy the extended warranty. Always get the highest deductible on any insurance policy. We will tend to go for a sure thing rather than gamble when looking at a gain, so do the math first. Conversely, we will tend to gamble rather than accept a sure loss, so do the math first. How can we guard against excessive optimism? Before any money is invested, have a meeting, and before it starts, make everyone write for 10 minutes on how, one year from now, this whole thing has been a complete failure. Then discuss. As I read, I was often amused at how irrational other people were. However, as the author points out, the real point of the book is to realize how irrational I am. My decisions often cannot be trusted. That is part of the reason that we need strong institutions with procedures to guard against reaching institutional decisions based upon faulty human decision- making. That is the reason for the scientific method. Scientists are not individually rational. What is rational is to make other scientists try to disprove new hypotheses that are presented by their peers. What cannot be disproved may be true. I feel, in the current political climate, the extremists on both sides need to be reminded of this.
  • 0
  • 2016-02-05
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인간 사고의 비합리성을 오류들을 현대 심리학적인 방법으로 멋지게 펼쳐진 책. 내용에 비해서 다소 장황하게 하던 말을 반복해서 서술하는 느낌을 많이 받았으나 반드시 한 번 쯤은 읽어보고 곰곰이 생각해 볼 가치가 있는 책.